After a brief reboundWsopvideos2022Recently, the bond market has made another collective correction.
By the close of trading on May 9, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures was down 0%.Wsopvideos2022.56%, forward contracts fell even more, reflecting investors' stronger expectations for future economic growth. In parallel with the correction in the bond market, the A-share market has risen one after another recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising to 3158 points in intraday trading on May 9, setting a new record for the year.
The correction of the bond market began with the "shouting" of the central bank, but what is more important is the continuous introduction of economic policies, the frequent outflow of real estate benefits and the recovery of the stock market, resulting in the "stock and debt seesaw" effect. Market analysts pointed out that with the emphasis on the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand and the intensive optimization of real estate policies, the domestic market is basically facing a good trend or will continue. The progress of financial financing may be accelerated or expected to reduce the pressure of asset shortage, and the volatility of the bond market will increase.
Bond market collective pullback
Recently, the equity market continues to rise, and there are frequent loosening policies in the property market, which has suppressed the performance of the bond market.
On May 9, the bond market fell across the board, and yields on interbank bonds at the main interest rate expanded in the afternoon. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with 30-year main contracts down 0.56%. 10-year main contracts fell 0.21%. 5-year main contracts fell 0.12%.
In terms of interest rate bonds, yields on major interbank interest rate bonds rose across the board. As of press time, the yield of 3-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 03" rose 2.75 basis points, and that of 7-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 06" rose 2.5 basis points as of press time. As for the opening of active coupons, 2.5 basis points for the 5-year 23-year opening 08, 3 basis points for the 7-year 20-year opening 05, and 2.9 basis points for the 10-year 24-year opening 05.
The bond market adjustment began with the central bank's statement on long-term bonds. Long-term Treasury yields mainly reflect expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, but are also disturbed by other factors, such as supply and demand, and "deviate periodically", the central bank said. The central bank said that the amount of government bonds planned to be issued this year is not small, and the pace of issuance will accelerate in the future. With the future issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the situation of "asset shortage" will be alleviated, and the yield of long-term treasury bonds will also rise.
So far, the main contract of 30-year treasury bonds has fallen by more than 2% since April 23. The main contract of 10-year treasury bonds has fallen nearly 1%.
Recently, the property market deregulation policy has been introduced one after another. Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province issued a notice on May 9 that the housing purchase restrictions will be completely lifted from now on, and Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, also issued a comprehensive housing purchase restrictions on the same day. In addition, Beijing, Chengdu, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places have recently announced further optimization and adjustment of demand-side purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and other policies.
The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 30 made it clear that it is necessary to continue to implement policies based on the city, to make overall research on the policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and to optimize incremental housing. Caixin Securities believes that this meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has provided directional guidance for follow-up real estate policies, and the further optimization of real estate support policies in Beijing and Shanghai has also set a new weather vane for "implementing policies due to the city". It is expected that the tone of real estate regulation will remain loose, especially policies such as purchase and loan restrictions in first-and second-tier core cities are expected to be further optimized to stimulate the release of housing demand.
The shortage of assets is expected to be alleviated.
With the downward rate of return on capital, the feeling of lack of assets in the market is becoming more and more obvious, and stable income assets such as bonds have become one of the objects of capital concern. Market analysts pointed out that the supply of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may fall in late May, with the promotion of regulation, the issuance of special bonds will also be released, and the "asset shortage" is expected to ease.
Affected by the increase in the issuance of treasury bonds last year and localized debt, the overall pace of government debt financing has been slow since the beginning of this year. Recently, the head of the relevant departments of the central bank said that the scale of government bonds planned to be issued this year is not small, and the pace of issuance will be accelerated in the future. At present, the underlying logic of the continuous decline in the yield of long-term treasury bonds is the lack of "safe assets" in the market. with the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the future, the situation of "asset shortage" will be alleviated, and the yield of long-term treasury bonds will also rise.
Citic Securities believes that in May, it is expected that the supply of local debt will be significantly increased, and the net financing may be 600 billion yuan. In terms of treasury bonds, it is expected that the net financing amount of treasury bonds may be around 700 billion-1 trillion yuan in May, while the issuance of special treasury bonds is expected to be officially landed.
According to the research point of view of Zheshang Securities, at present, China's economy is in the channel of recovery, and the level of inflation is expected to rebound gradually, considering that the expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States have continued to cool since the beginning of the year, the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate has increased, and the downward space for domestic capital interest rates is limited. The potential steepness of the yield curve should point to the upward trend of long-term yields, which may be mainly driven by the imbalance between supply and demand in the near future. That is, the slow pace of government bond issuance in the first quarter, resulting in institutions facing a certain degree of "asset shortage", have to extend the way of asset allocation.
Citic Securities believes that the Politburo meeting at the end of April provides the latest guidance for follow-up policy thinking. With the emphasis on the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand and the intensive optimization of real estate policies, China is basically facing a good trend or will continue. The pace of supply in the bond market and the operation of the central bank may be the focus of attention in May. On the one hand, the progress of financial financing may be accelerated or the pressure on the shortage of assets will be alleviated. In May, the level of capital may fluctuate with the increase of supply. On the other hand, the Politburo meeting mentioned that the flexible use of interest rate and required reserve ratio monetary policy tools made the bond market still have confidence, but under the background that the central bank attaches importance to the shape of the "normal" yield curve, the specific use of policy tools still needs to be flexible. From this point of view, the bottom space of the bond market may also be relatively limited.